JE-VOLUME 04 ISSUE 03 NOVEMBER 2015


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Volume 4 Issue 3, November 2015 

Journal of Environment

ISSN

2049-8373

Publication Frequency

6 Issues per year

Pages

36-45

Publication History


Original Articles

Accuracy of ARMA and Bayesian Models in Forecasting Carbon Dioxi-de Emission from Fossil Fuels in China and Across the Globe

Deeva Zafari and Dr. Sardar Khan

Pages 36-40

Restoration of Forest Ecosystem in Galliat, KP, Pakistan

Deeva Zafari, Sana Parvez, Sadaf Iqbal and Dr. Sardar Khan

Pages 41-45


Title

Accuracy of ARMA and Bayesian Models in Forecasting Ca-rbon Dioxide Emission from Fossil Fuels in China and Acr-oss the Globe

Abstract

Carbon dioxide is one of the major pollutants which continues to ha-rm the natural eco-system and our environment. Fossil fuels are us-ed as an alternative source of energy; however fossil fuels also emit CO2 that adversely affects our surroundings. This paper uses the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Naïve Bayesian Mod-els for accurately forecasting the CO2 emission of fossil fuels for var-ious future instances. Historical data of past 12 and 24 years are used to forecast the CO2 emission for the next 1 year. The experimen-tal results validate the accuracy of the models as the ARMA model attains accuracy as high as 99.97% while the Naïve Bayesian model reaches an accuracy of 99.8%.

Keywords

ARMA Model, Bayesian Model, CO2 Emission, Fossil Fuels, China

Title

Restoration of Forest Ecosystem in Galliat, KP, Pakistan

Abstract

Galliat is a huge area which has variety of complex forest types, rich physical environment and multitude of different ecosystems in whi-ch species form unique communities interacting with one another and with air, water and soil. Increase in population along with the urban construction and improper forest management, the degrada-tion of forest resources has been accelerating for many years. This research examines the restoration of the forest ecosystem in Galliat Region of Pakistan. Various vegetation types have been identified and a thorough discussion on the origin of degradation has been pr-esented. The research also identifies a number of threats to the forest ecosystem of the areas and examines the activities of various departments and organizations for controlling the deforestation, restoration of forest ecosystem and range of the accomplished prog-ress. Furthermore, the current issues affecting the forest are highlig-hted. The research will assist in the maintaining the awareness of adopting the restoration principles for a better future. Based on our results and analysis of the work of some other institutes, we believe that the steps taken now are not enough and work has to be made more viable.

Keywords

Forest, Reserved, Guzara, Degradation, Restoration, Sustainable